Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP182006
800 AM PDT FRI OCT 27 2006
 
LATE-NIGHT SHORTWAVE INFRARED AND MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW THAT
THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS BECOME EXPOSED ABOUT 90 N
MI SOUTHEAST OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION.  THE REASON FOR THIS IS
UNCLEAR...AS SHEAR ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN SHOW ONLY 10-15 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR NEAR THE
CYCLONE...AND PERHAPS THIS HAS HELPED DRY THE SYSTEM UP.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT.

AS BEST AS CAN BE DETERMINED...THE CENTER MOVED ALMOST DUE SOUTH
DURING THE NIGHT...WHICH REQUIRES A RE-LOCATION FROM THE LAST
ADVISORY.  VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME WESTWARD COMPONENT TO THE
MOTION...SO THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 225/4.  LARGE-SCALE
MODELS AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO THE SOUTH OF OF A WESTWARD-BUILDING LOW/
MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  AFTER 24 HOURS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY
WESTWARD...WITH THE BAM MODELS SHOWING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
AFTER 48 HOURS...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION. 
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED WELL SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
BASED ON THE RE-LOCATION AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL.
 
THE PARTING OF THE CENTER AND THE CONVECTION REQUIRES A MAJOR CHANGE
IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  ONLY THE SHIPS MODEL NOW
CALLS FOR PROLONGED STRENGTHENING...WITH THE OTHER AVAILABLE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM BEFORE DAY 5.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO PERSIST AS A WEAK
DEPRESSION FOR 72 HR...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW AND
DISSIPATION.  IF THE CONVECTION DOES NOT RE-DEVELOP NEAR THE
CENTER...THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE FASTER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/1500Z 15.8N 105.2W    25 KT
 12HR VT     28/0000Z 15.5N 106.2W    25 KT
 24HR VT     28/1200Z 15.0N 108.0W    25 KT
 36HR VT     29/0000Z 14.7N 110.2W    25 KT
 48HR VT     29/1200Z 14.5N 112.3W    25 KT
 72HR VT     30/1200Z 14.5N 116.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     31/1200Z 14.5N 120.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 27-Oct-2006 14:40:03 UTC