ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182006 800 AM PDT FRI OCT 27 2006 LATE-NIGHT SHORTWAVE INFRARED AND MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS BECOME EXPOSED ABOUT 90 N MI SOUTHEAST OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION. THE REASON FOR THIS IS UNCLEAR...AS SHEAR ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW ONLY 10-15 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR NEAR THE CYCLONE...AND PERHAPS THIS HAS HELPED DRY THE SYSTEM UP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT. AS BEST AS CAN BE DETERMINED...THE CENTER MOVED ALMOST DUE SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT...WHICH REQUIRES A RE-LOCATION FROM THE LAST ADVISORY. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME WESTWARD COMPONENT TO THE MOTION...SO THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 225/4. LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO THE SOUTH OF OF A WESTWARD-BUILDING LOW/ MID-LEVEL RIDGE. AFTER 24 HOURS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD...WITH THE BAM MODELS SHOWING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AFTER 48 HOURS...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED WELL SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE RE-LOCATION AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL. THE PARTING OF THE CENTER AND THE CONVECTION REQUIRES A MAJOR CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. ONLY THE SHIPS MODEL NOW CALLS FOR PROLONGED STRENGTHENING...WITH THE OTHER AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM BEFORE DAY 5. THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO PERSIST AS A WEAK DEPRESSION FOR 72 HR...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW AND DISSIPATION. IF THE CONVECTION DOES NOT RE-DEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER...THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/1500Z 15.8N 105.2W 25 KT 12HR VT 28/0000Z 15.5N 106.2W 25 KT 24HR VT 28/1200Z 15.0N 108.0W 25 KT 36HR VT 29/0000Z 14.7N 110.2W 25 KT 48HR VT 29/1200Z 14.5N 112.3W 25 KT 72HR VT 30/1200Z 14.5N 116.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 31/1200Z 14.5N 120.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 27-Oct-2006 14:40:03 UTC