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Tropical Storm PAUL


ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM PAUL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6             
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006               
1500 UTC SUN OCT 22 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   1( 1)   8( 9)  28(37)  15(52)   X(52)   X(52)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   8(17)   X(17)   X(17)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)  25(33)  17(50)   X(50)   X(50)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   9(16)   X(16)   X(16)
SAN JOSE CABO  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  14(18)  17(35)   X(35)   X(35)
LA PAZ         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
GUAYMAS        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  17(21)   X(21)   X(21)
LOS MOCHIS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)  24(34)   X(34)   X(34)
CULICAN        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  12(17)   X(17)   X(17)
MAZATLAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  3  41(44)  28(72)   3(75)   1(76)   X(76)   X(76)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   9( 9)  20(29)   3(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   2( 2)   7( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   6(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 168N 1098W 34 84   6(90)   1(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)
 12 168N 1098W 50 21  10(31)   2(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 12 168N 1098W 64  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
 24 180N 1107W 34 15  49(64)  13(77)   1(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)
 24 180N 1107W 50  1  19(20)  11(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 24 180N 1107W 64  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
 36 199N 1107W 34  1  17(18)  41(59)   9(68)   2(70)   X(70)   X(70)
 36 199N 1107W 50  X   1( 1)  22(23)   6(29)   1(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 36 199N 1107W 64  X   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
 48 222N 1100W 34  X   1( 1)  16(17)  28(45)  11(56)   X(56)   X(56)
 48 222N 1100W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)   6(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 48 222N 1100W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
 
 72 260N 1070W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 72 260N 1070W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 72 260N 1070W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     50     55      65      60      20       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Sunday, 22-Oct-2006 14:40:03 UTC