Hurricane PAUL

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HURRICANE PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006
1500 UTC MON OCT 23 2006
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM
LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED
LATER TODAY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 111.5W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  965 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW  75NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 111.5W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 111.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 17.3N 111.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 19.0N 111.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  35SW  35NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 21.3N 109.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 23.3N 107.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE  50SE  35SW  35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE  75SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 27.0N 104.0W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 111.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
 
 
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