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Tropical Storm PAUL


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006
800 AM PDT WED OCT 25 2006
 
WHILE PAUL APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME LESS ORGANIZED...LATEST DVORAK
ESTIMATES AND OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIP PDAN INDICATES THAT THE
CYCLONE IS CLINGING TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS SATELLITE
ESTIMATES AND THE HIGHEST WINDS REPORTED BY THE NEARBY SHIP. PAUL
IS ALSO MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE...050/12...AND IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AS A WEAK TROPICAL
STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.  BASED ON THIS FORECAST...THE
GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
MAZATLAN TO ALTATA.  OUTER RAINBANDS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING MAINLAND
MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  
 
PAUL IS NOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA MEXICO...AND
ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THAT AREA. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/1500Z 23.0N 108.8W    40 KT
 12HR VT     26/0000Z 23.9N 107.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     26/1200Z 24.6N 106.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 36HR VT     27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 25-Oct-2006 14:25:04 UTC