ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 800 AM PDT WED OCT 25 2006 WHILE PAUL APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME LESS ORGANIZED...LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES AND OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIP PDAN INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE IS CLINGING TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND THE HIGHEST WINDS REPORTED BY THE NEARBY SHIP. PAUL IS ALSO MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE...050/12...AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. BASED ON THIS FORECAST...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM MAZATLAN TO ALTATA. OUTER RAINBANDS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PAUL IS NOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA MEXICO...AND ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THAT AREA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/1500Z 23.0N 108.8W 40 KT 12HR VT 26/0000Z 23.9N 107.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 26/1200Z 24.6N 106.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 36HR VT 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 25-Oct-2006 14:25:04 UTC