Tropical Storm PAUL

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TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 24 2006
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH PAUL IS
PULSING AND HAS A STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SIGNATURE.  WHILE DVORAK
ESTIMATES ARE STILL AT ABOUT 55 KT...THESE ARE LIKELY
OVERESTIMATING THE INTENSITY BASED ON EARLIER AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA AND AMSU ESTIMATES. THE INTENSITY IS
ANALYZED AT 40 KT.  PAUL SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF VERY STRONG SHEAR...DESPITE MOVING OVER INCREASINGLY
WARM WATERS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE.
 
PAUL IS MOVING AT 025/12.  IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE CYCLONE WILL
SLOW DOWN AND TURN TO THE RIGHT AS IT IS STEERED BY LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AS IT WEAKENS.  A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY BE
ADVECTED QUICKLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS PAUL BECOMES DECAPITATED
BY THE STRONG SHEAR.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS NOW
ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.  ONLY NOGAPS MAINTAINS A
ROBUST ENOUGH CIRCULATION TO BE PICKED UP BY DEEP-LAYERED FLOW AND
HAS THE CYCLONE'S SURFACE CENTER MAKE LANDFALL.  ALL REMAINING
MODELS SUGGEST DISSIPATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OVER THE WATER.
THE FORECAST TRACK...A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE CONSENSUS OF THESE
MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...HAS THE DECAYING CYCLONE MAKING
LANDFALL JUST AT 48 HOURS.  HOWEVER...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
PAUL'S SURFACE CENTER WILL NOT TOUCH LAND.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IS BEING
MAINTAINED UNTIL PAUL PASSES THE PENINSULA.  THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR MAINLAND MEXICO IS DROPPED AS IT NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY
THAT PAUL WILL MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM FORCE INTENSITY...EVEN IF IT
DOES MAKE A LANDFALL.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/0300Z 21.1N 110.5W    40 KT
 12HR VT     25/1200Z 22.0N 109.8W    35 KT
 24HR VT     26/0000Z 22.6N 108.8W    30 KT
 36HR VT     26/1200Z 23.1N 107.8W    25 KT
 48HR VT     27/0000Z 23.6N 106.6W    20 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/LANDSEA
 
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