ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 800 PM PDT TUE OCT 24 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH PAUL IS PULSING AND HAS A STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SIGNATURE. WHILE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE STILL AT ABOUT 55 KT...THESE ARE LIKELY OVERESTIMATING THE INTENSITY BASED ON EARLIER AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA AND AMSU ESTIMATES. THE INTENSITY IS ANALYZED AT 40 KT. PAUL SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF VERY STRONG SHEAR...DESPITE MOVING OVER INCREASINGLY WARM WATERS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE. PAUL IS MOVING AT 025/12. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE CYCLONE WILL SLOW DOWN AND TURN TO THE RIGHT AS IT IS STEERED BY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AS IT WEAKENS. A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY BE ADVECTED QUICKLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS PAUL BECOMES DECAPITATED BY THE STRONG SHEAR. MOST OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS NOW ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. ONLY NOGAPS MAINTAINS A ROBUST ENOUGH CIRCULATION TO BE PICKED UP BY DEEP-LAYERED FLOW AND HAS THE CYCLONE'S SURFACE CENTER MAKE LANDFALL. ALL REMAINING MODELS SUGGEST DISSIPATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OVER THE WATER. THE FORECAST TRACK...A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE CONSENSUS OF THESE MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...HAS THE DECAYING CYCLONE MAKING LANDFALL JUST AT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT PAUL'S SURFACE CENTER WILL NOT TOUCH LAND. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IS BEING MAINTAINED UNTIL PAUL PASSES THE PENINSULA. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MAINLAND MEXICO IS DROPPED AS IT NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT PAUL WILL MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM FORCE INTENSITY...EVEN IF IT DOES MAKE A LANDFALL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0300Z 21.1N 110.5W 40 KT 12HR VT 25/1200Z 22.0N 109.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 26/0000Z 22.6N 108.8W 30 KT 36HR VT 26/1200Z 23.1N 107.8W 25 KT 48HR VT 27/0000Z 23.6N 106.6W 20 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN/LANDSEA NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 25-Oct-2006 02:40:03 UTC