Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane PAUL


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006
200 PM PDT MON OCT 23 2006
 
BASED ON AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE DATA AND RECENT DEGRADATION OF THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION...PAUL PROBABLY REACHED ITS MAXIMUM
INTENSITY EARLIER TODAY AND IS NOW WEAKENING.  MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS FROM THE AIRCRAFT WERE 88 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...SO
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 80 KT. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE THEIR
TOLL...AND SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE...
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.  THE GFDL MODEL CONTINUES TO
SHOW STRENGTHENING TAKING PAUL TO A CATEGORY 3 CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...IN LIGHT OF THE CURRENT WEAKENING AND
EXPECTED INCREASE IN SHEAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE
SHIPS AND FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE.  ONCE INLAND OVER MOUNTAINOUS
MEXICO...RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.
 
THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS RATHER PROBLEMATIC AS GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE PAUL IS NOW INTERACTING WITH A LARGE
MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA.
THIS INTERACTION HAS RESULTED IN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 360/4.  PAUL SHOULD BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IT BECOMES
EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE TROUGH. DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN DIVERGENT IN THE PREDICTED
FORWARD SPEED. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE GFDL IS THE FASTEST OF THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS AS IT MAINTAINS A STRONG AND DEEP VORTEX
UNTIL LANDFALL. CONVERSELY...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MUCH WEAKER
AND SHALLOWER CYCLONE RESULTING IN A SLOWER MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE FASTER GFDL AND THE
SLOWER GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH EQUATES TO ONLY A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF
PAUL...PARTICULARLY FOR RESIDENTS OF SOUTHERN BAJA...AS A HURRICANE
IS NOT A POINT AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER EXTENDS WELL BEYOND THE
CENTER.  ADDITIONALLY...ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE
FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING PAUL CLOSER TO THAT AREA.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/2100Z 17.0N 111.6W    80 KT
 12HR VT     24/0600Z 18.2N 111.3W    75 KT
 24HR VT     24/1800Z 20.1N 110.4W    70 KT
 36HR VT     25/0600Z 22.2N 108.9W    65 KT
 48HR VT     25/1800Z 24.5N 106.5W    40 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 23-Oct-2006 20:50:03 UTC