Hurricane PAUL

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HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006
200 PM PDT MON OCT 23 2006
 
BASED ON AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE DATA AND RECENT DEGRADATION OF THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION...PAUL PROBABLY REACHED ITS MAXIMUM
INTENSITY EARLIER TODAY AND IS NOW WEAKENING.  MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS FROM THE AIRCRAFT WERE 88 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...SO
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 80 KT. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE THEIR
TOLL...AND SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE...
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.  THE GFDL MODEL CONTINUES TO
SHOW STRENGTHENING TAKING PAUL TO A CATEGORY 3 CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...IN LIGHT OF THE CURRENT WEAKENING AND
EXPECTED INCREASE IN SHEAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE
SHIPS AND FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE.  ONCE INLAND OVER MOUNTAINOUS
MEXICO...RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.
 
THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS RATHER PROBLEMATIC AS GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE PAUL IS NOW INTERACTING WITH A LARGE
MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA.
THIS INTERACTION HAS RESULTED IN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 360/4.  PAUL SHOULD BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IT BECOMES
EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE TROUGH. DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN DIVERGENT IN THE PREDICTED
FORWARD SPEED. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE GFDL IS THE FASTEST OF THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS AS IT MAINTAINS A STRONG AND DEEP VORTEX
UNTIL LANDFALL. CONVERSELY...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MUCH WEAKER
AND SHALLOWER CYCLONE RESULTING IN A SLOWER MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE FASTER GFDL AND THE
SLOWER GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH EQUATES TO ONLY A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF
PAUL...PARTICULARLY FOR RESIDENTS OF SOUTHERN BAJA...AS A HURRICANE
IS NOT A POINT AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER EXTENDS WELL BEYOND THE
CENTER.  ADDITIONALLY...ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE
FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING PAUL CLOSER TO THAT AREA.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/2100Z 17.0N 111.6W    80 KT
 12HR VT     24/0600Z 18.2N 111.3W    75 KT
 24HR VT     24/1800Z 20.1N 110.4W    70 KT
 36HR VT     25/0600Z 22.2N 108.9W    65 KT
 48HR VT     25/1800Z 24.5N 106.5W    40 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
 
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