ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 200 PM PDT MON OCT 23 2006 BASED ON AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE DATA AND RECENT DEGRADATION OF THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION...PAUL PROBABLY REACHED ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY EARLIER TODAY AND IS NOW WEAKENING. MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS FROM THE AIRCRAFT WERE 88 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 80 KT. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE THEIR TOLL...AND SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE... ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. THE GFDL MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW STRENGTHENING TAKING PAUL TO A CATEGORY 3 CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...IN LIGHT OF THE CURRENT WEAKENING AND EXPECTED INCREASE IN SHEAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE. ONCE INLAND OVER MOUNTAINOUS MEXICO...RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS RATHER PROBLEMATIC AS GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE PAUL IS NOW INTERACTING WITH A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS INTERACTION HAS RESULTED IN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 360/4. PAUL SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN DIVERGENT IN THE PREDICTED FORWARD SPEED. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE GFDL IS THE FASTEST OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS AS IT MAINTAINS A STRONG AND DEEP VORTEX UNTIL LANDFALL. CONVERSELY...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MUCH WEAKER AND SHALLOWER CYCLONE RESULTING IN A SLOWER MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE FASTER GFDL AND THE SLOWER GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH EQUATES TO ONLY A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF PAUL...PARTICULARLY FOR RESIDENTS OF SOUTHERN BAJA...AS A HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER EXTENDS WELL BEYOND THE CENTER. ADDITIONALLY...ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING PAUL CLOSER TO THAT AREA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 17.0N 111.6W 80 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 18.2N 111.3W 75 KT 24HR VT 24/1800Z 20.1N 110.4W 70 KT 36HR VT 25/0600Z 22.2N 108.9W 65 KT 48HR VT 25/1800Z 24.5N 106.5W 40 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 23-Oct-2006 20:50:03 UTC