Tropical Storm PAUL

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TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 22 2006
 
PAUL DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE STRENGTHENED...WITH JUST A SMALL AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.  THE CIRRUS TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER HAS A HARD EDGE...INDICATING SOME EASTERLY
SHEAR...AND OUTFLOW TO THE WEST IS ALREADY STARTING TO BECOME
RESTRICTED AND DEFLECT NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE LARGE UPPER-LOW
CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE
DOWN TO T2.5 SINCE 00Z...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT
45 KT IN ACCORD WITH THE CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB.
 
MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE AN INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION A SHADE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO
BE 270/7. PAUL IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN END OF A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND WILL SOON BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER THE LARGE
UPPER-LOW.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO DEFLECT THE TRACK NORTHWARD AND
THEN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO...WITH THE DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE FOCUSING ON A TRACK NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...BUT
WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING THAT ARE RELATED TO HOW PAUL
RESPONDS TO THE SHEARING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AFTER
RECURVATURE. THE GFDL RESISTS THE SHEAR...MAKING PAUL A MAJOR
HURRICANE AND TAKING IT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD. MUCH OF THE
REMAINING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAKER SYSTEM WITH A SLOWER
MOTION...WHILE THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS DONE VERY WELL THIS YEAR AT
LONGER RANGES...DISSIPATES PAUL AND MEANDERS THE REMNANTS OFFSHORE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOUT AS FAST AS THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...WELL SLOWER THAN THE GFDL BUT A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS.
 
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER ENVIROMENT DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT THE MOMENT...THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SHEAR
WITH ENHANCED OUTFLOW IN A DAY OR SO AND THE WATER IS PLENTY WARM.
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE FORECASTS PAUL TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48
HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE CLOSELY. ONCE
AGAIN...THE GFDL INTENSITY FORECAST APPEARS TOO STRONG IN LIGHT OF
THE FORECAST SHEAR AND HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED.  IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW LITTLE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THE
LIMITED AMOUNT OF CONVECTION AT THIS TIME OF NIGHT MIGHT SUGGEST
THAT THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT THAT FAVORABLE EITHER.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0900Z 15.8N 108.9W    45 KT
 12HR VT     22/1800Z 16.0N 110.0W    50 KT
 24HR VT     23/0600Z 17.1N 111.0W    55 KT
 36HR VT     23/1800Z 18.7N 111.4W    60 KT
 48HR VT     24/0600Z 21.0N 111.0W    65 KT
 72HR VT     25/0600Z 25.0N 108.0W    60 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
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