ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 200 AM PDT SUN OCT 22 2006 PAUL DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE STRENGTHENED...WITH JUST A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. THE CIRRUS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER HAS A HARD EDGE...INDICATING SOME EASTERLY SHEAR...AND OUTFLOW TO THE WEST IS ALREADY STARTING TO BECOME RESTRICTED AND DEFLECT NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE LARGE UPPER-LOW CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE DOWN TO T2.5 SINCE 00Z...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 45 KT IN ACCORD WITH THE CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE AN INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION A SHADE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/7. PAUL IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN END OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND WILL SOON BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER THE LARGE UPPER-LOW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DEFLECT THE TRACK NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO...WITH THE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE FOCUSING ON A TRACK NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...BUT WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING THAT ARE RELATED TO HOW PAUL RESPONDS TO THE SHEARING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AFTER RECURVATURE. THE GFDL RESISTS THE SHEAR...MAKING PAUL A MAJOR HURRICANE AND TAKING IT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD. MUCH OF THE REMAINING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAKER SYSTEM WITH A SLOWER MOTION...WHILE THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS DONE VERY WELL THIS YEAR AT LONGER RANGES...DISSIPATES PAUL AND MEANDERS THE REMNANTS OFFSHORE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOUT AS FAST AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WELL SLOWER THAN THE GFDL BUT A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER ENVIROMENT DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THE MOMENT...THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SHEAR WITH ENHANCED OUTFLOW IN A DAY OR SO AND THE WATER IS PLENTY WARM. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE FORECASTS PAUL TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE CLOSELY. ONCE AGAIN...THE GFDL INTENSITY FORECAST APPEARS TOO STRONG IN LIGHT OF THE FORECAST SHEAR AND HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW LITTLE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF CONVECTION AT THIS TIME OF NIGHT MIGHT SUGGEST THAT THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT THAT FAVORABLE EITHER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0900Z 15.8N 108.9W 45 KT 12HR VT 22/1800Z 16.0N 110.0W 50 KT 24HR VT 23/0600Z 17.1N 111.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 23/1800Z 18.7N 111.4W 60 KT 48HR VT 24/0600Z 21.0N 111.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 25/0600Z 25.0N 108.0W 60 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 22-Oct-2006 08:45:03 UTC