Tropical Storm PAUL

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TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 21 2006
 
PAUL IS CURRENTLY ON A STRENGTHENING TREND GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF
THE CLOUD PATTERN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE
CENTER IS STILL PARTIALLY EXPOSED IT IS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTION. T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0 ON
THE DVORAK SCALE SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD
TO 45 KNOTS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE
RELIABLE GFDL MODEL MAKES PAUL A POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH 104 KNOTS
IN ABOUT 4 DAYS...JUST BEFORE LANDFALL ON THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO.
ON THE OTHER HAND...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...ALSO RELIABLE...
WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM IN ABOUT 48 TO 72 HOURS AS PAUL
INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND SHEAR INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MEETS HALFWAY AND CALLS FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING BUT ONLY TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE.   

PAUL HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280
DEGREES AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE RIDGE AND TURN GRADUALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD
IN ABOUT 2 DAYS. THEREAFTER...PAUL SHOULD ACCELERATE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
MAINLAND MEXICO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A STRONG
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH.  THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A FEW
MODELS ONLY...SINCE THE UKMET AND GFS MODELS LOSE THE CIRCULATION
MUCH EARLIER.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/2100Z 16.1N 107.4W    45 KT
 12HR VT     22/0600Z 16.2N 108.4W    50 KT
 24HR VT     22/1800Z 16.6N 109.7W    55 KT
 36HR VT     23/0600Z 17.5N 110.7W    60 KT
 48HR VT     23/1800Z 18.5N 111.0W    65 KT
 72HR VT     24/1800Z 23.0N 109.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     25/1800Z 28.0N 105.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER AVILA
 
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