ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 200 PM PDT SAT OCT 21 2006 PAUL IS CURRENTLY ON A STRENGTHENING TREND GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS STILL PARTIALLY EXPOSED IT IS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTION. T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 45 KNOTS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE RELIABLE GFDL MODEL MAKES PAUL A POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH 104 KNOTS IN ABOUT 4 DAYS...JUST BEFORE LANDFALL ON THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO. ON THE OTHER HAND...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...ALSO RELIABLE... WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM IN ABOUT 48 TO 72 HOURS AS PAUL INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND SHEAR INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MEETS HALFWAY AND CALLS FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BUT ONLY TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. PAUL HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND TURN GRADUALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD IN ABOUT 2 DAYS. THEREAFTER...PAUL SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MAINLAND MEXICO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A STRONG APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A FEW MODELS ONLY...SINCE THE UKMET AND GFS MODELS LOSE THE CIRCULATION MUCH EARLIER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/2100Z 16.1N 107.4W 45 KT 12HR VT 22/0600Z 16.2N 108.4W 50 KT 24HR VT 22/1800Z 16.6N 109.7W 55 KT 36HR VT 23/0600Z 17.5N 110.7W 60 KT 48HR VT 23/1800Z 18.5N 111.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 24/1800Z 23.0N 109.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 25/1800Z 28.0N 105.5W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 21-Oct-2006 20:35:03 UTC