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Tropical Depression OLIVIA
ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162006
200 AM PDT WED OCT 11 2006
IT APPEARS THAT PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS BEGUN TO TAKE
ITS TOLL ON OLIVIA. THE CONVECTION REMAINS DISPLACED NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER...AND THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A FEW DEGREES OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS. THE LARGE BLOB OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH OLIVIA EARLIER TODAY HAS ALSO DIMINISHED GREATLY IN COVERAGE.
AN EARLIER 0200 UTC QUIKSCAT OVERPASS REVEALED NO WINDS OF 35 KT OR
GREATER IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AT 06 UTC FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH 45 KT...ALTHOUGH
THE DATA-T NUMBERS HAD FALLEN IN RESPONSE TO THE DETERIORATING
CONVECTIVE PATTERN. SINCE THE CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN
SINCE THEN...AND CONSIDERING THE QUIKSCAT DATA...OLIVIA IS BEING
DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION WITH 30 KT MAXIMUM WINDS. CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MARGINAL SSTS SHOULD INDUCE ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
ANTICIPATES A SLIGHTLY FASTER DECLINE THAN DOES THE GFDL...AND
INSTEAD IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. IF
THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH...THE DEPRESSION COULD
DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW FASTER THAN WE ARE INDICATING.
OLIVIA'S INITIAL MOTION IS NEAR 045/09. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED
TO TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...SOUTH
OF THE DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF OF CALIFORNIA. OVERALL
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...ASIDE FROM
A SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE SOUTH TOWARD THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/0900Z 16.9N 124.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/1800Z 17.4N 123.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 12/0600Z 18.0N 121.7W 25 KT
36HR VT 12/1800Z 18.3N 119.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 13/0600Z 18.7N 117.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 14/0600Z 19.5N 114.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER KNABB/WILLIS
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