ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162006 200 AM PDT WED OCT 11 2006 IT APPEARS THAT PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS BEGUN TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON OLIVIA. THE CONVECTION REMAINS DISPLACED NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A FEW DEGREES OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE LARGE BLOB OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH OLIVIA EARLIER TODAY HAS ALSO DIMINISHED GREATLY IN COVERAGE. AN EARLIER 0200 UTC QUIKSCAT OVERPASS REVEALED NO WINDS OF 35 KT OR GREATER IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06 UTC FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH 45 KT...ALTHOUGH THE DATA-T NUMBERS HAD FALLEN IN RESPONSE TO THE DETERIORATING CONVECTIVE PATTERN. SINCE THE CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN SINCE THEN...AND CONSIDERING THE QUIKSCAT DATA...OLIVIA IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION WITH 30 KT MAXIMUM WINDS. CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MARGINAL SSTS SHOULD INDUCE ADDITIONAL WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES A SLIGHTLY FASTER DECLINE THAN DOES THE GFDL...AND INSTEAD IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. IF THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH...THE DEPRESSION COULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW FASTER THAN WE ARE INDICATING. OLIVIA'S INITIAL MOTION IS NEAR 045/09. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...SOUTH OF THE DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF OF CALIFORNIA. OVERALL THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...ASIDE FROM A SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE SOUTH TOWARD THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0900Z 16.9N 124.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 11/1800Z 17.4N 123.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 12/0600Z 18.0N 121.7W 25 KT 36HR VT 12/1800Z 18.3N 119.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 13/0600Z 18.7N 117.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 14/0600Z 19.5N 114.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KNABB/WILLIS NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 11-Oct-2006 09:05:03 UTC