Tropical Storm OLIVIA

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TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162006
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 10 2006
 
CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO SOUTHERLY
SHEAR AND IS LESS BANDED THAN THIS MORNING.  DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING AND THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 40 KT.  THE LATEST SHIPS DOES NOT SHOW MUCH
INCREASE IN SHEAR...BUT OLIVIA WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THE EXISTING SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO
KILL OFF OLIVIA ONCE THESE WATERS ARE ENCOUNTERED...AND THE
FORECAST DISSIPATION IS IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT OLIVIA HAS ACCELERATED
TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A A LARGE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE.  THE INITIAL
MOTION IS 040/12.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
UNTIL OLIVIA SHEARS OFF AND BECOMES A MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM.  WHEN
THIS HAPPENS WILL AFFECT HOW CLOSE THE CIRCULATIONS OF OLIVIA AND
NORMAN WILL GET...AND IF IT HAPPENS LATER RATHER THAN SOONER OLIVIA
COULD BE DEFLECTED SOUTHWARD BY THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF NORMAN. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
TRACK AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE MEDIUM BAM.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/2100Z 15.9N 126.0W    40 KT
 12HR VT     11/0600Z 17.2N 124.9W    45 KT
 24HR VT     11/1800Z 18.2N 122.8W    40 KT
 36HR VT     12/0600Z 19.0N 120.6W    35 KT
 48HR VT     12/1800Z 19.5N 119.0W    30 KT
 72HR VT     13/1800Z 20.0N 116.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     14/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
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