Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152006
900 PM PDT SUN OCT 08 2006

SINCE THE 0000 UTC DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGES INDICATED INCREASING ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF CABO SAN LUCAS.  ACCORDINGLY...A SPECIAL ADVISORY IS NOW BEING
ISSUED ON A NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGHER
OF THE AVAILABLE DVORAK ESTIMATES.  THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION TREND
OF THE SYSTEM ARGUES FOR STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM IN THE
SHORTER-TERM AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  AFTERWARDS...SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS CALLED FOR...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS MODEL.  HOWEVER...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER AN
ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
WATERS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION...
AND ULTIMATELY RESULT IN WEAKENING LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. 

BECAUSE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS...UNTIL RECENTLY...BEEN POORLY
DEFINED...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 340/8 IS RATHER UNCERTAIN. 
THE CYCLONE SHOULD ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THEREAFTER...THE MAIN STEERING
FEATURE SHOULD BE A LARGE CUTOFF LOW SITUATED OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST...WHICH IS LIKELY TO BRING ABOUT A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW MUCH ACCELERATION
IN DAYS 3-5 AS WE EXPECT THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE TO WEAKEN TO A
SHALLOW LOW BY THE TIME IT NEARS THE BAJA PENINSULA. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/0400Z 14.7N 117.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     09/1200Z 15.8N 117.6W    35 KT
 24HR VT     10/0000Z 17.3N 117.8W    40 KT
 36HR VT     10/1200Z 18.5N 117.8W    45 KT
 48HR VT     11/0000Z 19.6N 117.3W    45 KT
 72HR VT     12/0000Z 21.5N 115.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     13/0000Z 23.5N 113.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     14/0000Z 25.5N 110.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
 
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