ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006 900 PM PDT SUN OCT 08 2006 SINCE THE 0000 UTC DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED INCREASING ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. ACCORDINGLY...A SPECIAL ADVISORY IS NOW BEING ISSUED ON A NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGHER OF THE AVAILABLE DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION TREND OF THE SYSTEM ARGUES FOR STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM IN THE SHORTER-TERM AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. AFTERWARDS...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS CALLED FOR...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION... AND ULTIMATELY RESULT IN WEAKENING LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. BECAUSE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS...UNTIL RECENTLY...BEEN POORLY DEFINED...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 340/8 IS RATHER UNCERTAIN. THE CYCLONE SHOULD ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...THE MAIN STEERING FEATURE SHOULD BE A LARGE CUTOFF LOW SITUATED OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...WHICH IS LIKELY TO BRING ABOUT A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW MUCH ACCELERATION IN DAYS 3-5 AS WE EXPECT THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE TO WEAKEN TO A SHALLOW LOW BY THE TIME IT NEARS THE BAJA PENINSULA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0400Z 14.7N 117.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 09/1200Z 15.8N 117.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 10/0000Z 17.3N 117.8W 40 KT 36HR VT 10/1200Z 18.5N 117.8W 45 KT 48HR VT 11/0000Z 19.6N 117.3W 45 KT 72HR VT 12/0000Z 21.5N 115.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 13/0000Z 23.5N 113.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 14/0000Z 25.5N 110.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 09-Oct-2006 03:40:03 UTC