Tropical Depression MIRIAM

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142006
800 AM PDT MON SEP 18 2006
 
MIRIAM HAS BEEN DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 15 HOURS AND
IS NOW A LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY
AT ISLA CLARION REPORTED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 18 KT AT 1000
UTC... HOWEVER SINCE THEN THE WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED EVEN FURTHER.
BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS OF 1.5
FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 25 KT.
MIRIAM CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARDS COOLER WATERS AND A DRY STABLE
ENVIRONMENT GIVING THE SYSTEM VERY LITTLE CHANCE TO REGAIN
CONVECTION. THEREFORE THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE A REMNANT LOW
LATER TODAY...IF IT IS NOT ONE ALREADY. MIRIAM HAS A LARGE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT COULD PERSIST FOR A FEW DAYS
PRIOR TO DISSIPATION.
 
MIRIAM HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH 000/05...ALTHOUGH A
SLIGHT WEST OF NORTH MOTION HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE...INDICATING THAT THE REMNANTS OF MIRIAM WILL BE STEERED
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN ACCELERATE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE.
 
ASSUMING REGENERATION DOES NOT OCCUR...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY
ISSUED ON MIRIAM.ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/1500Z 20.1N 113.8W    25 KT
 12HR VT     19/0000Z 21.2N 114.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     19/1200Z 22.9N 115.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     20/0000Z 25.0N 116.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     20/1200Z 27.4N 115.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     21/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI
 
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