Tropical Storm MIRIAM

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TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142006
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 17 2006

DESPITE AN IMPRESSIVE DISPLAY OF CONVECTION-CYCLONE
DECOUPLING...MIRIAM REMAINS A TROPICAL STORM. THE WEAK CONVECTION
OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON SPAWNED A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER WEST
OF THE NOW FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE MID-LEVEL SWIRL
IS MOVING RAPIDLY AWAY FROM THE SURFACE CENTER...IN APPROXIMATELY
30 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR.  AT 2100Z...THE AUTOMATED WEATHER STATION
ON ISLA CLARION REPORTED 25 KT SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 35 KT. 
HOWEVER...A 0000Z SHIP OBSERVATION 70 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF
35 KT AND 20-FT SEAS SUPPORTS TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY...COUNTER TO
THE POOR SATELLITE PRESENTATION.  ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
STORM DISSIPATING IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...AND GIVEN THE CURRENT
STATE OF MIRIAM THIS SEEMS HIGHLY LIKELY.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS DIRECTION BUT AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER
PACE...CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AS MIRIAM RESPONDS
TO A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/0300Z 19.4N 114.1W    35 KT
 12HR VT     18/1200Z 19.9N 114.3W    30 KT
 24HR VT     19/0000Z 21.0N 114.9W    30 KT
 36HR VT     19/1200Z 22.1N 115.8W    25 KT
 48HR VT     20/0000Z 23.1N 116.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     21/0000Z 24.5N 117.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FIORINO/PASCH
 
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