Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142006
500 AM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006
 
THE FIRST FEW IMAGES OUT OF THE GOES-11 ECLIPSE PERIOD INDICATE THAT
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 400 N MI SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS DEVELOPED SOME VERY DEEP AND
PERSISTENT CONVECTION...AND ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED
ON AN OBSERVATION AT 0600 UTC...VERY NEAR THE APPARENT CIRCULATION
CENTER...BY A SHIP WITH CALL SIGN ELTZ7.  THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO
BE EXPERIENCING SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AS EVIDENCED BY
DISPLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER
LOCATION.  SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY STRONG...ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS
ANTICIPATED...AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE VERY STRONG CONVECTION...ANY RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR COULD
RESULT IN A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 045/04.  GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE DEPRESSION FEELS THE INFLUENCE OF
HURRICANE LANE.  BEYOND 36 HOURS...LANE IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING
AND THEREFORE LOSING ITS GRIP ON THE NEW CYCLONE. THIS SHOULD THEN
RESULT IN A NORTHWARD TURN AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS
CREATED BY A MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH EXPECTED TO DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
SHALLOW AS IT ENCOUNTERS PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THIS
SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST BEYOND ABOUT 72 HOURS.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/1200Z 17.5N 114.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     16/1800Z 17.9N 114.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     17/0600Z 18.9N 113.2W    40 KT
 36HR VT     17/1800Z 19.8N 112.7W    45 KT
 48HR VT     18/0600Z 20.8N 112.7W    40 KT
 72HR VT     19/0600Z 22.5N 113.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     20/0600Z 24.0N 114.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     21/0600Z 26.0N 115.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 16-Sep-2006 11:55:03 UTC