Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142006
500 AM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006
 
THE FIRST FEW IMAGES OUT OF THE GOES-11 ECLIPSE PERIOD INDICATE THAT
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 400 N MI SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS DEVELOPED SOME VERY DEEP AND
PERSISTENT CONVECTION...AND ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED
ON AN OBSERVATION AT 0600 UTC...VERY NEAR THE APPARENT CIRCULATION
CENTER...BY A SHIP WITH CALL SIGN ELTZ7.  THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO
BE EXPERIENCING SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AS EVIDENCED BY
DISPLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER
LOCATION.  SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY STRONG...ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS
ANTICIPATED...AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE VERY STRONG CONVECTION...ANY RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR COULD
RESULT IN A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 045/04.  GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE DEPRESSION FEELS THE INFLUENCE OF
HURRICANE LANE.  BEYOND 36 HOURS...LANE IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING
AND THEREFORE LOSING ITS GRIP ON THE NEW CYCLONE. THIS SHOULD THEN
RESULT IN A NORTHWARD TURN AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS
CREATED BY A MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH EXPECTED TO DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
SHALLOW AS IT ENCOUNTERS PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THIS
SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST BEYOND ABOUT 72 HOURS.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/1200Z 17.5N 114.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     16/1800Z 17.9N 114.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     17/0600Z 18.9N 113.2W    40 KT
 36HR VT     17/1800Z 19.8N 112.7W    45 KT
 48HR VT     18/0600Z 20.8N 112.7W    40 KT
 72HR VT     19/0600Z 22.5N 113.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     20/0600Z 24.0N 114.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     21/0600Z 26.0N 115.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
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FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB
 
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