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Hurricane LANE


ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE LANE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11                  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132006               
0900 UTC SAT SEP 16 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100  
KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR.                                          
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  4   6(10)   3(13)   1(14)   2(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  6   9(15)   4(19)   1(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
LA PAZ         34  3   9(12)   7(19)   2(21)   2(23)   X(23)   X(23)
LA PAZ         50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
LORETO         34  1   4( 5)   6(11)   4(15)   6(21)   X(21)   X(21)
LORETO         50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
HERMOSILLO     34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   7(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
BAHIA KINO     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   6(11)   X(11)   X(11)
BAHIA KINO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GUAYMAS        34  1   2( 3)   5( 8)   4(12)   9(21)   X(21)   X(21)
GUAYMAS        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
GUAYMAS        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  2  11(13)  15(28)   6(34)   5(39)   X(39)   X(39)
HUATABAMPO     50  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   3( 9)   4(13)   X(13)   X(13)
HUATABAMPO     64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  5  37(42)  14(56)   2(58)   2(60)   X(60)   X(60)
LOS MOCHIS     50  1   9(10)  10(20)   3(23)   2(25)   X(25)   X(25)
LOS MOCHIS     64  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
CULICAN        34 16  38(54)   6(60)   1(61)   1(62)   X(62)   X(62)
CULICAN        50  2  13(15)   6(21)   3(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
CULICAN        64  X   5( 5)   5(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
MAZATLAN       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
MAZATLAN       50 82   2(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)
MAZATLAN       64 24   2(26)   X(26)   X(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 
SAN BLAS       34  5   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
P VALLARTA     34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 240N 1071W 34 97   3(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 240N 1071W 50 82   7(89)   1(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
 12 240N 1071W 64 50  14(64)   X(64)   1(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)
 
 24 251N 1075W 34 62  26(88)   4(92)   1(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
 24 251N 1075W 50 16  42(58)   7(65)   1(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)
 24 251N 1075W 64  3  28(31)   4(35)   1(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
 
 36 262N 1079W 34  8  48(56)  16(72)   2(74)   2(76)   X(76)   X(76)
 36 262N 1079W 50  1  19(20)  14(34)   1(35)   1(36)   X(36)   X(36)
 36 262N 1079W 64  X   7( 7)   7(14)   X(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
 48 273N 1085W 34  2  17(19)  20(39)   7(46)   5(51)   X(51)   X(51)
 48 273N 1085W 50  X   3( 3)   8(11)   3(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 48 273N 1085W 64  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 
 72 285N 1095W 34  1   3( 4)   8(12)   6(18)   6(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 72 285N 1095W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 72 285N 1095W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND    105     85      60      40      30       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Saturday, 16-Sep-2006 09:00:03 UTC