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Hurricane LANE


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132006
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006
 
LANE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING AS THE EYE IS BECOMING
MORE DISTINCT IN CONVECTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.  DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE NOW 102 KT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES AND THE
EXPERIMENTAL UW CIMSS ADT IS 105 KT.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 100 KT...MAKING LANE THE FIFTH MAJOR
HURRICANE OF THE 2006 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SEASON. 
 
LANE HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 350/09. 
THE STEERING IS BEING PROVIDED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO...
WITH THE CYCLONE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO A WEAKNESS CREATED BY A
LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. WHILE
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY...THEY DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT TO WHICH THE
RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL BUILD BACK TO THE WEST NORTH OF
LANE. THIS RESULTS IN SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING WHERE AND WHEN
LANE MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. THE
ECMWF...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS ALLOW JUST ENOUGH RIDGING NORTH OF
LANE TO PRODUCE A NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION KEEPING THE CYCLONE OVER
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO. CONVERSELY...THE GFDL
FORECASTS LITTLE OR NO RIDGING NORTH OF LANE RESULTING IN AN ALMOST
DUE NORTH TRACK THAT TAKES THE CYCLONE INLAND IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.
GIVEN THE GFDL'S RELIABLE PERFORMANCE THUS FAR WITH THIS
HURRICANE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFDL
SOLUTION.  THIS RESULTS IN AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...TAKING LANE INLAND OVER MEXICO IN 12-18 HOURS. ONCE
INLAND...THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE
INTERACTION OF THE CYCLONE WITH COMPLEX TERRAIN OVER MEXICO.  THE
DEEP LAYER STEERING WOULD TEND TO PRODUCE A NORTHEAST TURN BEYOND
24 HOURS. HOWEVER...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THE CYCLONE COULD CROSS THE
VERY HIGH TERRAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL
MOUNTAINS.  A MORE PLAUSIBLE OUTCOME IS FOR THE CYCLONE TO BECOME
DECOUPLED...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION TURNING NORTHEAST
WHILE THE LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION PARALLELS THE WESTWARD SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ONCE LANE MOVES INLAND. 
 
AS LONG AS LANE REMAINS OVER WATER...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
REMAINS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE WINDOW APPEARS THE BE CLOSING AS
THE CYCLONE NEARS MAINLAND MEXICO. SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN SHIFTED TO THE EAST...AND LANDFALL IS NOW EXPECTED
SOONER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD BEYOND 12
HOURS. ONCE INLAND...RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE
CYCLONE'S SMALL SIZE...AND LANE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT
72 HOURS. IF LANE WERE TO MOVE A LITTLE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK
AND REMAIN OVER WATER LONGER...IT COULD BE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0900Z 22.7N 107.0W   100 KT
 12HR VT     16/1800Z 24.0N 107.1W   105 KT
 24HR VT     17/0600Z 25.1N 107.5W    85 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     17/1800Z 26.2N 107.9W    60 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     18/0600Z 27.3N 108.5W    40 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     19/0600Z 28.5N 109.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     20/0600Z...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Saturday, 16-Sep-2006 09:05:03 UTC