Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane LANE


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132006
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 15 2006
 
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE RADAR PRESENTATION FROM LOS
CABOS MEXICO...AND EARLIER MICROWAVE OVERPASSES DEPICT THAT LANE
HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED INTO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE.  ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS INNER CORE CLOUD TOPS OF -80C SURROUNDING
THE SMALL 9 N MI EYE.  THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL IS
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE ISLA MARIAS.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
AND ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE RAW T-NUMBERS SUPPORT AN INITIAL
INTENSITY INCREASE TO 90 KT.
 
BASED ON THE EXPECTED FAVORABLE AND IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
PATTERN OVER LANE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CURRENT EYEWALL
STRUCTURE TRENDS...AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF NEAR
30C...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD STRENGTHEN FURTHER INTO A MAJOR
HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND CALLS FOR RAPID WEAKENING AFTER
LANDFALL BEYOND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD...AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH
SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL MOUNTAINS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 340/10...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.  LANE REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER MEXICO AND IS MOVING TOWARD A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY
MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.  GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN FORWARD MOTION IN 12
HOURS AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES FARTHER INLAND...ALLOWING THE
RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TO BUILD BACK WESTWARD.  AROUND THE 48
HOUR PERIOD...THE UKMET AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
BECOME STATIONARY JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING NEAR THE 72 HOUR PERIOD.  THE NOGAPS
INDICATES INTERACTION WITH THE DISTURBANCE LOCATED WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF LANE WHICH CAUSES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA...CONTINUING OFF OF THE
WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA AND DISSIPATING IN 96 HOURS.  THIS
SEEMS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE UNREASONABLE SIZE MID-LEVEL STRUCTURE OF
THE DISTURBANCE IN THE FIELDS.  THE GFDL AND THE GFS AND THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGEST AN EARLIER LANDFALL EVENT IN 24 HOURS JUST
EAST OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN
THE GFDL AND THE OTHER LARGE-SCALE AND CONSENSUS MODELS...BRINGING
LANE INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH GRADUAL DECELERATION.
 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE
AND IS BASED ON THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH CALLS FOR
LANDFALL NEAR THE 48 HOUR PERIOD.  HOWEVER...ANY ADDITIONAL MOTION
TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK...SIMILAR TO THE GFDL/GFS SOLUTION WOULD
BRING LANE TO THE COAST EARLIER.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0300Z 21.7N 106.8W    90 KT
 12HR VT     16/1200Z 23.0N 107.3W   100 KT
 24HR VT     17/0000Z 23.6N 107.7W   110 KT
 36HR VT     17/1200Z 24.3N 108.3W   110 KT
 48HR VT     18/0000Z 25.2N 108.5W   110 KT
 72HR VT     19/0000Z 26.5N 108.5W    65 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     20/0000Z 27.7N 108.3W    30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     21/0000Z 29.2N 107.7W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 16-Sep-2006 03:05:03 UTC