ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 800 PM PDT FRI SEP 15 2006 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE RADAR PRESENTATION FROM LOS CABOS MEXICO...AND EARLIER MICROWAVE OVERPASSES DEPICT THAT LANE HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED INTO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS INNER CORE CLOUD TOPS OF -80C SURROUNDING THE SMALL 9 N MI EYE. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE ISLA MARIAS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE RAW T-NUMBERS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY INCREASE TO 90 KT. BASED ON THE EXPECTED FAVORABLE AND IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PATTERN OVER LANE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CURRENT EYEWALL STRUCTURE TRENDS...AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF NEAR 30C...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD STRENGTHEN FURTHER INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND CALLS FOR RAPID WEAKENING AFTER LANDFALL BEYOND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD...AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL MOUNTAINS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 340/10...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LANE REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND IS MOVING TOWARD A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN FORWARD MOTION IN 12 HOURS AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES FARTHER INLAND...ALLOWING THE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TO BUILD BACK WESTWARD. AROUND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD...THE UKMET AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME STATIONARY JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING NEAR THE 72 HOUR PERIOD. THE NOGAPS INDICATES INTERACTION WITH THE DISTURBANCE LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF LANE WHICH CAUSES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA...CONTINUING OFF OF THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA AND DISSIPATING IN 96 HOURS. THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE UNREASONABLE SIZE MID-LEVEL STRUCTURE OF THE DISTURBANCE IN THE FIELDS. THE GFDL AND THE GFS AND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGEST AN EARLIER LANDFALL EVENT IN 24 HOURS JUST EAST OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN THE GFDL AND THE OTHER LARGE-SCALE AND CONSENSUS MODELS...BRINGING LANE INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH GRADUAL DECELERATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS BASED ON THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH CALLS FOR LANDFALL NEAR THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. HOWEVER...ANY ADDITIONAL MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK...SIMILAR TO THE GFDL/GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING LANE TO THE COAST EARLIER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0300Z 21.7N 106.8W 90 KT 12HR VT 16/1200Z 23.0N 107.3W 100 KT 24HR VT 17/0000Z 23.6N 107.7W 110 KT 36HR VT 17/1200Z 24.3N 108.3W 110 KT 48HR VT 18/0000Z 25.2N 108.5W 110 KT 72HR VT 19/0000Z 26.5N 108.5W 65 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 20/0000Z 27.7N 108.3W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 21/0000Z 29.2N 107.7W 20 KT...DISSIPATING $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 16-Sep-2006 03:05:03 UTC