Tropical Storm LANE

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TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132006
800 AM PDT THU SEP 14 2006
 
LANE CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...WITH A
FORMATIVE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND A LARGE BAND OF CONVECTION
OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
45 KT FROM TAFB...AND 35 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT...AND THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE
AND POOR TO FAIR ELSEWHERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/11...A LITTLE FASTER
THAN EARLIER.  LANE IN ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LOW/MID LEVEL
RIDGE OVER MEXICO...AND IS MOVING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
CAUSED BY A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS TROUGH TO MOVE
EASTWARD...WITH A SECOND TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS LANE
BY 120 HR.  TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOW IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
LANE WILL MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR 72 HR...FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AS THE CYCLONE MOVES AROUND THE
WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BRINGING LANE PARALLEL
TO THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FOR 24 HR AND NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM 72-120 HR.  IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE FLORIDA
STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.

LANE IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 29-30C...AND IS PRODUCING CLOUD TOPS OF COLDER THAN
-80C.  THESE CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING...WITH THE ONLY OBVIOUS INHIBITING FACTOR BEING THAT
THE INFLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE WILL BE PASSING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OF WESTERN MEXICO.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LANE TO BECOME
A HURRICANE IN 24 HR AND REACH 75 KT AS IT NEARS BAJA CALIFORNIA IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.  HOWEVER...THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX OF THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A 55 PERCENT CHANCE
OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HR...SO LANE COULD BE
STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AS IT APPROACHES BAJA.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FROM 72-120 HR IS BASED ON LANE MOVING OVER
BAJA...AND THE INTENSITY WILL BE DIFFERENT IF THE CENTER MOVES OVER
EITHER THE PACIFIC OR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE CENTER OFFSHORE UNTIL LANE
APPROACHES BAJA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/1500Z 17.5N 104.3W    40 KT
 12HR VT     15/0000Z 18.2N 105.4W    55 KT
 24HR VT     15/1200Z 19.0N 106.6W    65 KT
 36HR VT     16/0000Z 19.9N 107.6W    70 KT
 48HR VT     16/1200Z 20.9N 108.6W    75 KT
 72HR VT     17/1200Z 23.0N 110.0W    75 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     18/1200Z 24.5N 111.5W    65 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     19/1200Z 26.5N 112.0W    50 KT...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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