ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 800 AM PDT THU SEP 14 2006 LANE CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...WITH A FORMATIVE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND A LARGE BAND OF CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB...AND 35 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT...AND THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR TO FAIR ELSEWHERE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/11...A LITTLE FASTER THAN EARLIER. LANE IN ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO...AND IS MOVING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CAUSED BY A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS TROUGH TO MOVE EASTWARD...WITH A SECOND TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS LANE BY 120 HR. TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOW IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LANE WILL MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR 72 HR...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AS THE CYCLONE MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BRINGING LANE PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FOR 24 HR AND NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM 72-120 HR. IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE. LANE IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30C...AND IS PRODUCING CLOUD TOPS OF COLDER THAN -80C. THESE CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...WITH THE ONLY OBVIOUS INHIBITING FACTOR BEING THAT THE INFLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE WILL BE PASSING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LANE TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 24 HR AND REACH 75 KT AS IT NEARS BAJA CALIFORNIA IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX OF THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A 55 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HR...SO LANE COULD BE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AS IT APPROACHES BAJA. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FROM 72-120 HR IS BASED ON LANE MOVING OVER BAJA...AND THE INTENSITY WILL BE DIFFERENT IF THE CENTER MOVES OVER EITHER THE PACIFIC OR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE CENTER OFFSHORE UNTIL LANE APPROACHES BAJA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/1500Z 17.5N 104.3W 40 KT 12HR VT 15/0000Z 18.2N 105.4W 55 KT 24HR VT 15/1200Z 19.0N 106.6W 65 KT 36HR VT 16/0000Z 19.9N 107.6W 70 KT 48HR VT 16/1200Z 20.9N 108.6W 75 KT 72HR VT 17/1200Z 23.0N 110.0W 75 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 18/1200Z 24.5N 111.5W 65 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 19/1200Z 26.5N 112.0W 50 KT...INLAND $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 14-Sep-2006 15:00:03 UTC