Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression KRISTY


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
800 PM PDT WED SEP 06 2006

KRISTY IS PRODUCING ONLY A FEW ISOLATED CELLS OF DEEP CONVECTION AT
THIS TIME AS IT MOVES INTO A RATHER STABLE AIR MASS.  THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE OCEAN WATERS JUST WARM ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO
BECOME VERY STRONG...DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THEREFORE THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM IN ITS PRESENT STATE FOR
SEVERAL DAYS.  IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT KRISTY COULD
EVEN RE-STRENGTHEN.  GIVEN THE TENACIOUS NATURE OF THIS TROPICAL
CYCLONE...THAT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISING TURN OF EVENTS.
ALTERNATIVELY...HOWEVER...IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS VIRTUALLY DEVOID OF
DEEP CONVECTION FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO IT WOULD DISSIPATE MUCH
SOONER THAN INDICATED HERE.

THE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED JUST A TAD...TO 10 OR 11 KT.  A
WEAKENING MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF KRISTY SHOULD
MAINTAIN A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE ALBEIT A LITTLE SLOWER BECAUSE
OF THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER INITIAL FORWARD SPEED.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/0300Z 16.5N 128.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     07/1200Z 16.6N 130.5W    30 KT
 24HR VT     08/0000Z 16.7N 132.5W    30 KT
 36HR VT     08/1200Z 16.8N 134.3W    30 KT
 48HR VT     09/0000Z 16.9N 136.2W    30 KT
 72HR VT     10/0000Z 17.0N 139.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     11/0000Z 17.0N 142.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     12/0000Z 17.0N 145.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:44 UTC