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Tropical Depression KRISTY


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
200 PM PDT WED SEP 06 2006
 
VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS SPARSE DEEP CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED
EARLIER THIS MORNING...NEAR THE CENTER AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PERIPHERY...HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY. APPARENTLY...ENTRAINMENT
OF THE DRY STABLE AIR MASS FROM THE NORTHWEST IS THE MAIN
CONTRIBUTOR TO THE WEAKENING TREND BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE
WATER IS STILL WARM. CONSEQUENTLY...BASED ON THE LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTION...SUPPORTED BY THE UNCLASSIFIABLE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND AN EARLIER 0208Z QUIKSCAT
AMBIGUITY SOLUTION THAT INDICATED SURFACE WINDS NO GREATER THAN 33
KT...KRISTY IS DECREASED TO DEPRESSION STRENGTH ON THIS ADVISORY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 3
DAYS...ALTHOUGH A SIGNIFICANT DIURNAL BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION
COULD TEMPORARILY BRING KRISTY BACK UP TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLER WATER SHOULD INDUCE FURTHER
WEAKENING...ULTIMATELY TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 270/12...WITHIN THE LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC
EASTERLY FLOW OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/2100Z 16.5N 127.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     07/0600Z 16.6N 129.8W    30 KT
 24HR VT     07/1800Z 16.8N 131.9W    30 KT
 36HR VT     08/0600Z 16.8N 134.1W    30 KT
 48HR VT     08/1800Z 16.9N 135.8W    30 KT
 72HR VT     09/1800Z 17.0N 139.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     10/1800Z 17.0N 142.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     11/1800Z 17.0N 144.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:44 UTC