ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 200 PM PDT WED SEP 06 2006 VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS SPARSE DEEP CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING...NEAR THE CENTER AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY...HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY. APPARENTLY...ENTRAINMENT OF THE DRY STABLE AIR MASS FROM THE NORTHWEST IS THE MAIN CONTRIBUTOR TO THE WEAKENING TREND BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE WATER IS STILL WARM. CONSEQUENTLY...BASED ON THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION...SUPPORTED BY THE UNCLASSIFIABLE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND AN EARLIER 0208Z QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITY SOLUTION THAT INDICATED SURFACE WINDS NO GREATER THAN 33 KT...KRISTY IS DECREASED TO DEPRESSION STRENGTH ON THIS ADVISORY. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS...ALTHOUGH A SIGNIFICANT DIURNAL BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION COULD TEMPORARILY BRING KRISTY BACK UP TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLER WATER SHOULD INDUCE FURTHER WEAKENING...ULTIMATELY TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5. INITIAL MOTION IS 270/12...WITHIN THE LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC EASTERLY FLOW OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/2100Z 16.5N 127.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 07/0600Z 16.6N 129.8W 30 KT 24HR VT 07/1800Z 16.8N 131.9W 30 KT 36HR VT 08/0600Z 16.8N 134.1W 30 KT 48HR VT 08/1800Z 16.9N 135.8W 30 KT 72HR VT 09/1800Z 17.0N 139.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 10/1800Z 17.0N 142.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 11/1800Z 17.0N 144.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:44 UTC