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Tropical Storm KRISTY


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
800 AM PDT WED SEP 06 2006
 
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A RECENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER THIS MORNING...AND BANDING FEATURE DEVELOPMENT TO
THE SOUTHEAST.  ALTHOUGH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED
TO 30 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT
35 KT BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE TREND. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH THE INTENSITY
MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME STRENGTHENING OR LITTLE CHANGE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  BEYOND DAY 3...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLER WATER SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 

INITIAL MOTION IS 280/13...WITH A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE LEFT OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND A
0208Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING WITHIN THE
LOW TO MID LAYER EASTERLY FLOW OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTH...WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH DAY 5.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TO THE LEFT AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
THROUGH DAY 3.  THEN...THE FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE
UKMET/GFDL AND NOGAPS...WHICH ARE THE ONLY REMAINING MODELS THAT
DEPICT A CLOSED CIRCULATION THROUGH THE REMAINING PERIOD. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/1500Z 17.0N 126.9W    35 KT
 12HR VT     07/0000Z 17.5N 128.9W    35 KT
 24HR VT     07/1200Z 17.9N 131.2W    40 KT
 36HR VT     08/0000Z 18.0N 133.2W    40 KT
 48HR VT     08/1200Z 18.0N 134.9W    40 KT
 72HR VT     09/1200Z 18.0N 138.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     10/1200Z 18.0N 141.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     11/1200Z 18.0N 143.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:44 UTC