Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm KRISTY


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
200 AM PDT WED SEP 06 2006
 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KRISTY HAS SHOWN A MARKED DECREASE THIS
MORNING...WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -60C IN A
BAND WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 35 AND 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...AND
THERE WAS A 47 KT AMSU ESTIMATE AT 0153 UTC.  GIVEN THE DECREASING
CONVECTION IT IS TEMPTING TO DOWNGRADE KRISTY TO A DEPRESSION...BUT
THAT SHOULD PROBABLY WAIT A FEW MORE HOURS TO MAKE SURE THE
CONVECTION DOES NOT COME BACK.  THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 35 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/12...AND THE MOTION OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS MAY BE A BIT FASTER.  KRISTY IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST WILL WEAKEN
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A BROAD MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC.  THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD KEEP
KRISTY MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  ALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES
WITH THIS SCENARIO...SAVE FOR THE BAMD AND LBAR WHICH TURN KRISTY
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEAKENING RIDGE.  SINCE IT APPEARS UNLIKELY
THAT KRISTY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MAKE SUCH A TURN...THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE BALANCE OF THE GUIDANCE WESTWARD.  THE
NEW TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF AND SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS ALL CALL FOR KRISTY
TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH OR EVEN INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY
DURING THE NEXT 72 HR.  GIVEN THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND
MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 26C...THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE
OPTIMISTIC.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE CONVECTION
WILL RETURN AND CALLS FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING FOR 24 HR OR SO TO
40 KT...LESS THAN THE GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  AFTER 72
HR...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE KRISTY TO WEAKEN AND
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE.  IF THE CONVECTION DOES NOT COME BACK IN THE
NEXT 6-12 HR...THEN KRISTY COULD WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN THE
NEXT DAY OR SO INSTEAD OF STRENGTHENING.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0900Z 17.3N 125.2W    35 KT
 12HR VT     06/1800Z 17.7N 127.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     07/0600Z 18.1N 129.2W    40 KT
 36HR VT     07/1800Z 18.2N 130.8W    40 KT
 48HR VT     08/0600Z 18.2N 132.3W    40 KT
 72HR VT     09/0600Z 18.5N 135.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     10/0600Z 19.0N 138.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     11/0600Z 19.0N 141.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:44 UTC