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Tropical Depression KRISTY


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
200 PM PDT MON SEP 04 2006
 
THERE WAS ANOTHER SMALL PUFF OF CONVECTION...SINCE DISSIPATED...
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.  A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 14Z HAD A FEW
BELIEVABLE 30 KT VECTORS...AND THAT WILL BE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. 
OVERALL...KRISTY'S CIRCULATION LOOKS LESS VIGOROUS THAN 24 HOURS
AGO...AND IT IS SLOWLY SPINNING DOWN.  HOWEVER...THE RECENT
CONVECTION MEANS WE WILL NEED TO WAIT A BIT LONGER BEFORE
TERMINATING ADVISORIES.  

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 225/5.  TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN
INCREASING WESTWARD MOTION...IN RESPONSE TO THE MID AND UPPER-LEVEL
EASTERLIES...THAT KRISTY WITH ITS ANEMIC CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
IGNORE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PRESUMES THAT KRISTY WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY NON-CONVECTIVE AND INTERACT MINIMALLY WITH THE EASTERLIES. 
AS A RESULT...IT IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE.

BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE RE-INTENSIFY THE CYCLONE TO A
STRONG TROPICAL STORM.  HOWEVER...EASTERLY SHEAR AND UNFAVORABLE
ATMOSPHERIC THERMODYNAMICS HAVE BEEN LIMITING CONVECTION...AND I
SEE NO REASON WHY THIS SHOULD NOT CONTINUE.  GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT
A DECREASE IN EASTERLY SHEAR...BUT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG
EASTERLIES UPSTREAM AND HEADED KRISTY'S WAY.  THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO IS THAT KRISTY WILL DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.    

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/2100Z 16.2N 119.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     05/0600Z 16.1N 120.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     05/1800Z 16.1N 121.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     06/0600Z 16.2N 122.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     06/1800Z 16.4N 123.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:44 UTC