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Hurricane KRISTY


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
800 AM PDT THU AUG 31 2006
 
THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS THIS
MORNING...WITH SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 90 KT.  ADT
ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS ARE STILL BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.  BANDING
THAT WAS PRESENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY A FEW HOURS AGO NOW HAS
DEGRADED SOMEWHAT.  AN 1138 TRMM PASS SHOWS A PARTIAL EYEWALL OPEN
TO THE SOUTH...WHEREAS AN EARLIER PASS WAS MORE COMPLETE.  BASED ON
THESE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 65 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/5.  KRISTY IS IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT.  A WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE CYCLONE...AND THERE IS A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO KRISTY'S NORTH AND NORTHWEST.  THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A FAIRLY SLOW MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER
THAT...THERE COULD BE AN INTERACTION WITH THE CIRCULATION OF
HURRICANE JOHN...CURRENTLY ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF KRISTY.  MODEL
GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERGENT...WITH THE NOGAPS SHOWING AN ALMOST
IMMEDIATE INTERACTION AND THE GFDL SHOWING NONE AT ALL.  THE
DEPICTIONS OF BOTH CIRCULATIONS IN THE NOGAPS SEEM TOO LARGE...BUT
THE GFDL TRACK FOR JOHN IS AN EASTERN OUTLIER.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TAKES A MIDDLE GROUND ON THE INTERACTION SCENARIO AND
ANTICIPATES THAT BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...JOHN WILL SLOW
THE WESTWARD PROGRESS OF KRISTY TO A CRAWL.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT A MAJORITY OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS FASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

WIND SHEAR OVER KRISTY IS PRESENTLY LIGHT...AND WATER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 27C FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.  THIS SHOULD GIVE
KRISTY AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE...ALTHOUGH NONE
OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE GETS ABOVE 70 KT.  OUTFLOW FROM JOHN IS
EXPANDING RAPIDLY WESTWARD TOWARD KRISTY...AND SHOULD BE ANOTHER
INHIBITING FACTOR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED DOWNWARD FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS STILL ABOVE THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR KRISTY TO BE DISSIPATING WITHIN THE
OUTER CIRCULATION OF JOHN LATE IN THE PERIOD. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/1500Z 17.9N 116.5W    65 KT
 12HR VT     01/0000Z 18.5N 117.3W    70 KT
 24HR VT     01/1200Z 19.3N 118.4W    75 KT
 36HR VT     02/0000Z 19.9N 119.6W    70 KT
 48HR VT     02/1200Z 20.0N 120.5W    60 KT
 72HR VT     03/1200Z 20.0N 121.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     04/1200Z 20.0N 122.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     05/1200Z 20.0N 122.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:44 UTC