Tropical Storm KRISTY

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TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
800 AM PDT WED AUG 30 2006

ALTHOUGH THERE WAS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES ON EARLIER
SATELLITE PICTURES...RECENT IMAGERY SUGGESTS A COMMA-LIKE CLOUD
PATTERN IS DEVELOPING.  CLOUD TOPS ARE VERY COLD OVER THE ESTIMATED
CENTER.  BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION AND
BANDING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 50
KT...ABOVE ALL AVAILABLE DVORAK ESTIMATES.  KRISTY COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS...OR LESS.  GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...THE
SHORT-TERM OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE.   IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND A
MODEST INCREASE IN SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO HALT THE INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS.  
 
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 305/5.  ALTHOUGH THE TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERGENT...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN APPEARS TO BE
RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
NORTH OF KRISTY SHOULD CAUSE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A
LITTLE INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...FOLLOWED BY A MORE WESTWARD
MOTION OF THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF CLIMATOLOGY...THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...AND CLIMATOLOGY.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/1500Z 16.7N 115.1W    50 KT
 12HR VT     31/0000Z 17.2N 115.8W    60 KT
 24HR VT     31/1200Z 17.8N 117.0W    65 KT
 36HR VT     01/0000Z 18.5N 118.5W    70 KT
 48HR VT     01/1200Z 19.2N 120.0W    65 KT
 72HR VT     02/1200Z 20.0N 123.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     03/1200Z 20.0N 125.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     04/1200Z 20.0N 127.0W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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