Tropical Storm KRISTY

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TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
200 AM PDT WED AUG 30 2006
 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TD-12E HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED AS A LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND
EXPANDED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE T2.5/35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...SO THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM KRISTY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 305/6...BASED ON A BLEND
OF INFRARED SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS AND EARLIER QUIKSCAT WIND DATA.
KRISTY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A SLOWER
THAN AVERAGE FORWARD SPEED OF 6-8 KT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TOWARD A BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
AXIS SITUATED BETWEEN 120-130W LONGITUDE. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
CREATING THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT
TO THE NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY ALLOW THE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD TO
THE NORTH OF KRISTY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS SIMILAR TO...BUT NORTH OF...THE
NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

KRISTY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER 28-29C SSTS AND IN A VERY LOW
VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OF LESS THAN 5 KT FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS...SO AT LEAST STEADY STRENGTHENING SEEMS REASONABLE. GIVEN
THAT KRISTY IS A SMALL AND TIGHT CIRCULATION...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THE CYCLONE COULD INTENSIFY FASTER THAN THE CURRENT OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS INDICATING AND BECOME A HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS OR SO.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/0900Z 16.5N 114.7W    35 KT
 12HR VT     30/1800Z 17.0N 115.4W    40 KT
 24HR VT     31/0600Z 17.6N 116.4W    45 KT
 36HR VT     31/1800Z 18.2N 117.6W    55 KT
 48HR VT     01/0600Z 18.7N 118.8W    65 KT
 72HR VT     02/0600Z 19.5N 121.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     03/0600Z 20.0N 123.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     04/0600Z 20.0N 126.0W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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