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Hurricane JOHN


ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  15                  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006               
0300 UTC FRI SEP 01 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4
NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90   
KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR.                                          
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   1( 1)   9(10)  18(28)  13(41)   2(43)   X(43)
P ABREOJOS     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   5(10)   1(11)   X(11)
P ABREOJOS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 64  29(93)   2(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  7  46(53)   4(57)   1(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64  1  29(30)   4(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34 69  25(94)   2(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
SAN JOSE CABO  50 11  49(60)   4(64)   1(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)
SAN JOSE CABO  64  3  32(35)   4(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
 
LA PAZ         34  7  65(72)  12(84)   3(87)   1(88)   X(88)   X(88)
LA PAZ         50  X  27(27)  16(43)   2(45)   1(46)   X(46)   X(46)
LA PAZ         64  X  11(11)   9(20)   1(21)   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
LORETO         34  1   5( 6)  22(28)  11(39)   5(44)   X(44)   1(45)
LORETO         50  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)
LORETO         64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
HERMOSILLO     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
BAHIA KINO     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   4( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 
GUAYMAS        34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)   3(12)   1(13)   X(13)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  1   3( 4)   6(10)   4(14)   3(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  1  10(11)   8(19)   3(22)   2(24)   X(24)   X(24)
LOS MOCHIS     50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CULICAN        34  4  30(34)   7(41)   3(44)   2(46)   X(46)   X(46)
CULICAN        50  X   5( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
CULICAN        64  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MAZATLAN       34  4   3( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
SAN BLAS       34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 224N 1089W 34 97   1(98)   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 224N 1089W 50 62  12(74)   1(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
 12 224N 1089W 64 33  15(48)   1(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
 
 24 234N 1103W 34 27  60(87)   6(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
 24 234N 1103W 50  1  44(45)  10(55)   2(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)
 24 234N 1103W 64  X  23(23)   9(32)   1(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 
 36 242N 1117W 34  1  40(41)  30(71)   8(79)   3(82)   X(82)   X(82)
 36 242N 1117W 50  X   9( 9)  24(33)   7(40)   2(42)   X(42)   X(42)
 36 242N 1117W 64  X   3( 3)  15(18)   4(22)   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
 48 248N 1132W 34  X   7( 7)  29(36)  21(57)  10(67)   1(68)   X(68)
 48 248N 1132W 50  X   1( 1)  11(12)  14(26)   7(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 48 248N 1132W 64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)   4(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
 
 72 255N 1160W 34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  14(18)  21(39)   5(44)   1(45)
 72 255N 1160W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   2(15)   X(15)
 72 255N 1160W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
 
 96 260N 1190W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   7(18)   2(20)
 96 260N 1190W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 96 260N 1190W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 260N 1240W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)
120 260N 1240W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
120 260N 1240W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     95     90      90      85      65      50      40
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC