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Hurricane JOHN


ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12                  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006               
0900 UTC THU AUG 31 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110  
KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR.                                          
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  14(20)   5(25)   1(26)
P ABREOJOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  1  21(22)  40(62)  13(75)   7(82)   X(82)   X(82)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   5( 5)  31(36)  13(49)   6(55)   X(55)   X(55)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64  X   1( 1)  17(18)   9(27)   4(31)   X(31)   X(31)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  1  22(23)  42(65)  13(78)   7(85)   X(85)   X(85)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   5( 5)  32(37)  13(50)   6(56)   1(57)   X(57)
SAN JOSE CABO  64  X   1( 1)  21(22)  10(32)   3(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   5( 5)  33(38)  23(61)  12(73)   2(75)   X(75)
LA PAZ         50  X   X( X)  13(13)  18(31)  11(42)   X(42)   X(42)
LA PAZ         64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)   6(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  10(15)  17(32)   3(35)   X(35)
LORETO         50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
LORETO         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
HERMOSILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
BAHIA KINO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 
GUAYMAS        34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   6( 9)   2(11)   X(11)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   8(18)   1(19)   1(20)
HUATABAMPO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   2( 2)  10(12)  12(24)   7(31)   1(32)   X(32)
LOS MOCHIS     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
LOS MOCHIS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CULICAN        34  X   5( 5)  25(30)  16(46)   8(54)   1(55)   X(55)
CULICAN        50  X   X( X)   7( 7)   8(15)   4(19)   1(20)   X(20)
CULICAN        64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
MAZATLAN       34  2  23(25)  11(36)   3(39)   3(42)   X(42)   X(42)
MAZATLAN       50  X   4( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
MAZATLAN       64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN BLAS       34 22  15(37)   2(39)   2(41)   1(42)   X(42)   X(42)
SAN BLAS       50  2   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
P VALLARTA     34 66   3(69)   1(70)   1(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)
P VALLARTA     50 13   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
P VALLARTA     64  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50 48   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)
BARRA NAVIDAD  64  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MANZANILLO     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
MANZANILLO     50  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  1   2( 3)   3( 6)   3( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   1(13)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34 54  29(83)   2(85)   2(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)
ISLAS MARIAS   50 11  33(44)   3(47)   X(47)   1(48)   X(48)   X(48)
ISLAS MARIAS   64  2  19(21)   2(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 200N 1066W 34 97   2(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 200N 1066W 50 85   7(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
 12 200N 1066W 64 64  13(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)
 
 24 216N 1080W 34 14  73(87)   6(93)   1(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
 24 216N 1080W 50  2  61(63)   9(72)   2(74)   1(75)   X(75)   X(75)
 24 216N 1080W 64  X  41(41)  12(53)   1(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)
 
 36 227N 1093W 34  2  38(40)  36(76)   8(84)   4(88)   X(88)   X(88)
 36 227N 1093W 50  X  13(13)  36(49)   9(58)   4(62)   X(62)   X(62)
 36 227N 1093W 64  X   5( 5)  25(30)   8(38)   3(41)   X(41)   X(41)
 
 48 234N 1106W 34  X   8( 8)  37(45)  20(65)  12(77)   1(78)   X(78)
 48 234N 1106W 50  X   1( 1)  18(19)  17(36)   8(44)   1(45)   X(45)
 48 234N 1106W 64  X   X( X)   9( 9)  10(19)   6(25)   1(26)   X(26)
 
 
 72 240N 1135W 34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  14(18)  30(48)   8(56)   1(57)
 72 240N 1135W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  15(19)   5(24)   X(24)
 72 240N 1135W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   3(12)   X(12)
 
 
 96 240N 1175W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)  17(25)   1(26)
 96 240N 1175W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)
 96 240N 1175W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
120 240N 1220W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)
120 240N 1220W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
120 240N 1220W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND    115    115     115     105      90      70      50
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KNABB                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC