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Tropical Storm JOHN


ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3             
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006               
0300 UTC TUE AUG 29 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  18(26)   3(29)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  15(23)   2(25)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)
SAN JOSE CABO  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   2(15)
LA PAZ         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   2(11)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   5(12)   1(13)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   4(17)   1(18)
SAN BLAS       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  21(24)   4(28)   X(28)
P VALLARTA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  33(42)   2(44)   1(45)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   1(14)   1(15)
BARRA NAVIDAD  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)  29(40)   1(41)   1(42)
MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   1(11)   X(11)
MANZANILLO     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
L CARDENAS     34  X   1( 1)  14(15)  21(36)  10(46)   1(47)   X(47)
L CARDENAS     50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   4(14)   1(15)   X(15)
L CARDENAS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  1   2( 3)  19(22)  16(38)   5(43)   X(43)   X(43)
ZIHUATANEJO    50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)
ZIHUATANEJO    64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ACAPULCO       34  1  12(13)  20(33)   5(38)   1(39)   X(39)   X(39)
ACAPULCO       50  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
ACAPULCO       64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
P MALDONADO    34  3  18(21)   7(28)   2(30)   1(31)   X(31)   X(31)
P MALDONADO    50  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
P ANGEL        34  2   2( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
HUATULCO       34  1   3( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)  17(30)   1(31)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)   X(11)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   2(10)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  21(22)   8(30)   1(31)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)
ISLAS MARIAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 143N  983W 34 87   7(94)   1(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
 12 143N  983W 50 47  19(66)   2(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)
 12 143N  983W 64 15  14(29)   1(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 
 24 148N  997W 34 12  65(77)  10(87)   2(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
 24 148N  997W 50  1  40(41)  14(55)   2(57)   1(58)   X(58)   X(58)
 24 148N  997W 64  X  22(22)  10(32)   1(33)   1(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 
 36 155N 1015W 34  1  19(20)  48(68)  12(80)   3(83)   X(83)   X(83)
 36 155N 1015W 50  X   3( 3)  33(36)  12(48)   3(51)   X(51)   X(51)
 36 155N 1015W 64  X   1( 1)  18(19)   8(27)   2(29)   X(29)   X(29)
 
 48 163N 1034W 34  X   2( 2)  25(27)  33(60)  17(77)   X(77)   X(77)
 48 163N 1034W 50  X   X( X)   7( 7)  24(31)  14(45)   X(45)   X(45)
 48 163N 1034W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   8(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
 
 72 194N 1080W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  42(44)  13(57)   1(58)
 72 194N 1080W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)   7(25)   1(26)
 72 194N 1080W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   4(13)   X(13)
 
 
 96 215N 1120W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  25(31)   3(34)
 96 215N 1120W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   2(12)
 96 215N 1120W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
 
120 220N 1150W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   5(17)
120 220N 1150W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
120 220N 1150W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     65     80      90      95      95      85      60
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC