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Tropical Storm JOHN


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006
 
RADAR DATA FROM GUASAVE INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF JOHN IS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION SEEN ON
SATELLITE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS SPENT AT LEAST 12 HOURS OVER
LAND AND IT IS LIKELY TO HAVE DIMINISHED TO A TROPICAL STORM... SO
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 60 KT. STEADY WEAKENING IS
FORECAST AS THE CENTER SHOULD REMAIN OVER OR CLOSE TO BAJA
CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER... COLDER WATERS
SHOULD KILL THE SYSTEM QUICKLY AFTER THE SEVERELY WEAKENED CYCLONE
EMERGES INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT
TRACK... MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM JOHN IS LIKELY TO
ENHANCE RAINFALL IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MONSOON AREAS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE TO THE LEFT... NOW
315/7.  THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC REASONING WITH A WEAK
RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON HOW MUCH OF A WESTWARD TURN...
IF ANY... TO EXPECT AFTER THE SYSTEM DEPARTS BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE
GFDL AND GFS IN PARTICULAR HAVE BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING FROM A MORE
NORTHERLY TO A WESTERLY TRACK FROM RUN-TO-RUN. LITTLE CHANGE HAS
BEEN MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST... WHICH IS JUST A LITTLE SOUTH
OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. 
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/2100Z 25.0N 111.2W    60 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     03/0600Z 25.8N 112.1W    50 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     03/1800Z 26.8N 113.2W    40 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     04/0600Z 27.8N 114.3W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     04/1800Z 28.7N 115.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     05/1800Z 29.5N 117.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     06/1800Z 29.5N 119.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC