ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 200 PM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006 RADAR DATA FROM GUASAVE INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF JOHN IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION SEEN ON SATELLITE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS SPENT AT LEAST 12 HOURS OVER LAND AND IT IS LIKELY TO HAVE DIMINISHED TO A TROPICAL STORM... SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 60 KT. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE CENTER SHOULD REMAIN OVER OR CLOSE TO BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER... COLDER WATERS SHOULD KILL THE SYSTEM QUICKLY AFTER THE SEVERELY WEAKENED CYCLONE EMERGES INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK... MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM JOHN IS LIKELY TO ENHANCE RAINFALL IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MONSOON AREAS. THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE TO THE LEFT... NOW 315/7. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC REASONING WITH A WEAK RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON HOW MUCH OF A WESTWARD TURN... IF ANY... TO EXPECT AFTER THE SYSTEM DEPARTS BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE GFDL AND GFS IN PARTICULAR HAVE BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING FROM A MORE NORTHERLY TO A WESTERLY TRACK FROM RUN-TO-RUN. LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST... WHICH IS JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/2100Z 25.0N 111.2W 60 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 03/0600Z 25.8N 112.1W 50 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 03/1800Z 26.8N 113.2W 40 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 04/0600Z 27.8N 114.3W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 04/1800Z 28.7N 115.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 05/1800Z 29.5N 117.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 06/1800Z 29.5N 119.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC