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Hurricane JOHN


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006

AFTER BRIEFLY EMERGING INTO THE BAHIA LA PAZ... THE CENTER IS
MAKING A SECOND LANDFALL ON BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE EYE FEATURE ON
SATELLITE HAS BECOME INDISTINCT THOUGH THERE IS STILL FAIRLY STRONG
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  DUE TO THE LONG INTERACTION WITH LAND
AND THE LOSS OF AN EYE... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 70
KT.  HOWEVER THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THAT
ESTIMATE AS FEW OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM THE
HURRICANE'S CORE.  JOHN SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AT A STEADY RATE
AS LONG AS IT REMAINS OVER BAJA.  REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED
AFTER IT EMERGES FROM THE PENINSULA IN A COUPLE DAYS DUE TO THE
COLDER WATERS WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.  HOWEVER... THE
SMALL SYSTEM MIGHT DISSIPATE OVER LAND.  

THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT... NOW 320/8. 
IN GENERAL THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ALSO SHIFTED EVEN MORE TO THE
LEFT... OR WEST... SINCE THE LAST MODEL CYCLE.  IN FACT...THE GFDL
IS NOW ONE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST TRACKS AFTER BEING ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE FOR QUITE SOME TIME.  WITH JOHN EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERELY WEAKENED DUE TO LAND INTERACTION...RECURVATURE INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA APPEARS LESS LIKELY THAN YESTERDAY. 
INSTEAD JOHN SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED WESTWARD CLOSE TO FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
 
IT STILL APPEARS PROBABLE THAT MOISTURE FROM THE CYCLONE WILL SPREAD
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES EVEN THOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY NOT APPROACH THAT REGION. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/1500Z 24.5N 110.8W    70 KT...NEAR COAST
 12HR VT     03/0000Z 25.3N 111.6W    55 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     03/1200Z 26.4N 112.7W    40 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     04/0000Z 27.5N 113.8W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     04/1200Z 28.5N 115.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     05/1200Z 29.5N 117.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     06/1200Z 29.5N 119.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC