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Hurricane ILEANA


ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17                
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006               
1500 UTC FRI AUG 25 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA CLARION   34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 219N 1176W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 219N 1176W 50 72   5(77)   1(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)
 12 219N 1176W 64 34   5(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
 
 24 221N 1187W 34 56  20(76)   3(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)
 24 221N 1187W 50 11  23(34)   1(35)   1(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
 24 221N 1187W 64  2   6( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
 36 222N 1197W 34 16  26(42)   6(48)   2(50)   1(51)   X(51)   X(51)
 36 222N 1197W 50  1   9(10)   4(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 36 222N 1197W 64  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 48 222N 1207W 34  6  13(19)   8(27)   3(30)   2(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 48 222N 1207W 50  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 48 222N 1207W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 72 220N 1225W 34  2   4( 6)   3( 9)   2(11)   3(14)   1(15)   X(15)
 72 220N 1225W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 72 220N 1225W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 215N 1245W 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 96 215N 1245W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 96 215N 1245W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     65     55      40      30      25      20       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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