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Tropical Storm ILEANA


ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006               
0900 UTC TUE AUG 22 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X  17(17)  43(60)   9(69)   3(72)   X(72)   1(73)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)  17(17)  11(28)   1(29)   1(30)   X(30)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   1( 1)  15(16)  31(47)  17(64)   2(66)   X(66)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)  12(29)   1(30)   X(30)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   8(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 150N 1073W 34 95   3(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
 12 150N 1073W 50 33  19(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)
 12 150N 1073W 64  5   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
 24 163N 1095W 34 17  68(85)   7(92)   X(92)   X(92)   1(93)   X(93)
 24 163N 1095W 50  X  45(45)  14(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
 24 163N 1095W 64  X  13(13)   8(21)   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
 36 176N 1116W 34  1  24(25)  49(74)  12(86)   1(87)   X(87)   X(87)
 36 176N 1116W 50  X   2( 2)  36(38)  13(51)   2(53)   X(53)   X(53)
 36 176N 1116W 64  X   X( X)  15(15)   8(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
 48 188N 1136W 34  X   3( 3)  27(30)  35(65)  13(78)   1(79)   X(79)
 48 188N 1136W 50  X   X( X)   5( 5)  28(33)  10(43)   1(44)   X(44)
 48 188N 1136W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   6(20)   1(21)   X(21)
 
 
 72 205N 1165W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)  33(48)   8(56)   X(56)
 72 205N 1165W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  18(20)   4(24)   1(25)
 72 205N 1165W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   2(10)   X(10)
 
 
 96 215N 1190W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)  13(32)   1(33)
 96 215N 1190W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)
 96 215N 1190W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
 
120 225N 1215W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   2(13)
120 225N 1215W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
120 225N 1215W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     55     70      80      90      85      65      40
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN