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Tropical Storm ILEANA


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 26 2006
 
AS DEPICTED BY CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...ILEANA HAS BEEN
DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS.  ILEANA IS
CONTINUING ITS SPINNING DOWN PROCESS AND A BLEND OF DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITIES AND DATA T-NUMBERS YIELDS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT.
DUE TO THE LACK OF CONVECTION AND SINCE ILEANA IS MOVING OVER COOL
24 DEGREES CELSIUS WATERS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY
WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS.  THIS FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH
BOTH THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
 
ILEANA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THE
INITIAL MOTION REMAINS AT 295/5.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BENDING THE TRACK
WESTWARD AS ILEANA BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/0300Z 23.2N 119.8W    40 KT
 12HR VT     27/1200Z 23.5N 120.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     28/0000Z 23.6N 122.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     28/1200Z 23.5N 123.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC