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Hurricane ILEANA


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 25 2006
 
IN ADDITION TO WARMING CLOUDS TOPS...ILEANA IS BEGINNING TO LOSE ITS
STRUCTURE WITH THE EYE BECOMING GRADUALLY LESS DEFINED. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT BASED AN AVERAGE OF THE DVORAK T
AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY
FORECAST REASONING. ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES OVER COOLER SSTS AND ENTRAINS DRY STABLE AIR. THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HR AND BE DISSIPATED BY
120 HR.

ILEANA HAS WOBBLED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
YIELDING A SHORT-TERM MOTION OF ABOUT 320/5. A LONGER TERM MOTION
OF 305/5 IS USED FOR THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE.  IGNORING THE GFS
AND ITS INFLUENCE ON THE CONSENSUS-BASED TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT ILEANA SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN WEST AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY
SHALLOW OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
SAME GENERAL REASONING AND IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN LINE WITH THE SHALLOW BAM MODEL.
 
THE 12 FT SEAS RADII WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD IN THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT BASED ON REPORTS FROM SHIP DGSR.  THE 34 KT WIND RADII
WERE CONTRACTED IN ALL QUADRANTS BASED ON THE LAST QUIKSCAT DATA. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/2100Z 22.0N 117.2W    65 KT
 12HR VT     26/0600Z 22.4N 117.9W    55 KT
 24HR VT     26/1800Z 22.8N 119.1W    45 KT
 36HR VT     27/0600Z 23.0N 120.4W    35 KT
 48HR VT     27/1800Z 23.0N 122.0W    30 KT
 72HR VT     28/1800Z 23.0N 124.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     29/1800Z 23.0N 127.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC