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Hurricane ILEANA


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 25 2006
 
ILEANA IS RETAINING GOOD STRUCTURE WITH A 20 NM WIDE EYE OBSERVED IN 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...CLOUDS TOPS AROUND THE 
CENTER CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM AND DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE
DECREASING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE LOWERED TO 70 KT...WHICH
IS AN AVERAGE OF THE DVORAK T AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS. THIS
AVERAGE IS TYPICALLY USED DURING THE WEAKENING PHASE WHEN CI
NUMBERS ARE CONSTRAINED BY DVORAK RULES.  WITH VERY LITTLE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR FORECAST...ILEANA MAY WEAKEN A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES 
OVER COOLER SSTS AND ENTRAINS DRY STABLE AIR. IT IS FORECAST 
TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.

THE HURRICANE HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 6-12 HOURS AND
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/4 KT.  THE GFS WHICH
INITIALIZED THE HURRICANE FAR TOO WEAK....SEEMS UNREASONABLE WITH
ITS ALMOST IMMEDIATE SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE REMAINDER OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS DEPICT A STRONGER SYSTEM THAT TRACKS SLOWLY
NORTHWEST DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FOLLOWS
THIS SCENARIO AND WAS ADJUSTED A LITTLE NORTHWARD.  THE FORECAST 
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WESTWARD BEND LATER IN THE PERIOD AS THE
CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW SYSTEM.
 
THE 12 FT SEA RADII WERE EXPANDED BASED ON EARLIER OBSERVATIONS 
FROM TWO SHIPS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/1500Z 21.6N 116.9W    70 KT
 12HR VT     26/0000Z 21.9N 117.6W    65 KT
 24HR VT     26/1200Z 22.1N 118.7W    55 KT
 36HR VT     27/0000Z 22.2N 119.7W    40 KT
 48HR VT     27/1200Z 22.2N 120.7W    30 KT
 72HR VT     28/1200Z 22.0N 122.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     29/1200Z 21.5N 124.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC