Hurricane ILEANA

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HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006
800 PM PDT THU AUG 24 2006
 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES.
CIMSS ADT 6-HOURLY AVERAGED ESTIMATES ARE HIGHER...CLOSE TO 100 KT.
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED ONCE AGAIN WITH DRY AIR ATTEMPTING TO WRAP INTO THE PERIPHERY
OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY
LOWERED TO 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ILEANA IS ON THE VERGE OF
CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM WHICH COUPLED WITH THE WEAKINING NOTED
IN SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS STEADY WEAKENING MAY BE CLOSE AT HAND.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL...SHIPS AND FSU SUPER
ENSEMBLE. ILEANA SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HOURS WITH
DISSIPATION EXPECTED AT 120 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/7 BASED ON A 12 HOUR AVERAGE. THE
FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH ILEANA RESPONDING TO A
WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHILE IT REMAINS A DEEP
SYSTEM AND THEN TURNING WESTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS THE
CYCLONE WEAKENS. THE FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND
THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...CONU/GUNA THROUGH 48 HOURS.
AFTER 48 HOURS...A MOTION SOUTH OF DUE WEST WAS INTRODUCED WHICH
REFLECTS THE SOUTHWARD TRENDS OF THE FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE...GFDL AND
SHALLOW BAM.
 
THE 34-KT WIND AND 12 FOOT SEA RADII WERE ADJUSTED IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT BASED ON 0000 UTC OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIPS DILE AND A8HR7.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/0300Z 21.2N 116.0W    80 KT
 12HR VT     25/1200Z 21.8N 116.8W    70 KT
 24HR VT     26/0000Z 22.3N 117.8W    60 KT
 36HR VT     26/1200Z 22.6N 118.8W    45 KT
 48HR VT     27/0000Z 22.8N 120.0W    35 KT
 72HR VT     28/0000Z 22.5N 122.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     29/0000Z 22.0N 124.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     30/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER COBB/KNABB
 
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