Hurricane ILEANA

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 22 2006
 
VISIBLE AND ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT THAT ILEANA HAS
DEVELOPED A WELL DEFINED 30 NMI EYE THIS EVENING...WITH THE EYE WALL
NOW COMPLETELY CLOSED OFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY REVEALS IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS.  DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM BOTH SAB AND AFWA...77
KT FROM TAFB...AND A 77 KT 6 HOUR AVG FROM THE CIMSS ADT.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNTOUCHED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...EXCEPT FOR
AN INCREASE TO 90 KT IN 12 HOURS BASED OFF OF A BLEND OF THE SHIPS
AND THE GFDL MODELS...AND THE RECENT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE
CORE STRUCTURE AND IMPROVED OUTFLOW.  THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND THE
FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INDICATE FURTHER STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE NEXT
36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...AS ILEANA MOVES
OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 310/14.  THE GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER ILEANA...WITH A MOTION
MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITHIN THE SHALLOW LAYER EASTERLY FLOW
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WEST FROM MEXICO.  THE REMAINDER
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SOLUTION
SUGGESTING A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 4 DAYS...TOWARD A
DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE. 
AFTERWARD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...WHICH CONTINUES TO
SHOW A TURN NORTHWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS...LARGE SCALE MODELS
INDICATE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A REDUCTION
IN FORWARD MOTION AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS OVER COOLER WATERS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WITH LESS EMPHASIS
ON THE GFS. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0300Z 16.6N 109.2W    75 KT
 12HR VT     23/1200Z 17.6N 110.9W    90 KT
 24HR VT     24/0000Z 19.0N 113.1W   100 KT
 36HR VT     24/1200Z 20.0N 115.0W   100 KT
 48HR VT     25/0000Z 20.7N 116.4W    90 KT
 72HR VT     26/0000Z 22.0N 118.5W    75 KT
 96HR VT     27/0000Z 23.0N 120.0W    55 KT
120HR VT     28/0000Z 23.5N 122.0W    45 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART
 
NNNN